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Positive Predictive Value

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1. Positive predictive value of the German notification system for infectious diseases: Surveillance data from eight local health departments, Berlin, 2012. (PubMed)

Positive predictive value of the German notification system for infectious diseases: Surveillance data from eight local health departments, Berlin, 2012. The German Infection Protection Act requires notifying certain cases of infectious diseases to local health departments (LHD) in Germany. LHDs transmit notifications meeting case definitions to the national health authority, where the proportion of discarded notifications is not known. The proportion of discarded cases at the level of LHDs can (...) be expressed as the positive predictive value (PPV) of the notification system. The PPV can be used to assess the efficiency of the system. We quantified the proportion of discarded notifications to calculate the PPV of the German notification system at the level of LHDs using electronic notification data from Berlin LHDs from 2012. We also analysed reasons for discarding notifications by reviewing notification forms. Data was available from eight LHDs (67%) receiving 10,113 notifications in 2012. Overall

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2019 PLoS ONE

2. Low Positive Predictive Value of Bone Scan to Predict Impending Complete Fracture among Incomplete Atypical Femoral Fracture (PubMed)

Low Positive Predictive Value of Bone Scan to Predict Impending Complete Fracture among Incomplete Atypical Femoral Fracture Although bone scan might be useful to detect incomplete atypical femoral fractures (AFFs) earlier than radiographs, there is no study on predicting further progression to a complete fracture among incomplete AFFs. Our purposes are to determine whether bone scan detects impending complete fracture among incomplete AFFs.We reviewed 18 patients (20 AFFs) who underwent bone (...) scan at the diagnosis of incomplete AFF and were not treated with prophylactic fixation. A diagnosis of impending complete fracture was made, when the femur completely fractured within 6 months after the scan. We correlated radioisotope uptake with the impending complete fracture to calculate sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of bone scan.Thirteen AFFs (65%, 13/20) showed a positive uptake in bone scan. Among the 13, only one femur was completely

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2018 Journal of Korean medical science

3. Physician and Nonphysician Estimates of Positive Predictive Value in Diagnostic v. Mass Screening Mammography: An Examination of Bayesian Reasoning. (PubMed)

Physician and Nonphysician Estimates of Positive Predictive Value in Diagnostic v. Mass Screening Mammography: An Examination of Bayesian Reasoning. The same test with the same result has different positive predictive values (PPVs) for people with different pretest probability of disease. Representative thinking theory suggests people are unlikely to realize this because they ignore or underweight prior beliefs when given new information (e.g., test results) or due to confusing test sensitivity (...) , incorrectly assessing the 2 PPVs as equal.Physicians and patients are better at intuitive Bayesian reasoning than is suggested by studies that make test accuracy values readily available to be confused with PPV. However, MBAs and physicians interpret a positive in screening as more similar to a positive in diagnosis than it is, with nearly half of MBAs and some physicians wrongly equating the two. This has implications for overdiagnosis and overtreatment.

2019 Medical Decision Making

4. Prognostic and predictive value of androgen receptor expression in postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: results from the Breast International Group Trial 1-98. (PubMed)

Prognostic and predictive value of androgen receptor expression in postmenopausal women with estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: results from the Breast International Group Trial 1-98. The androgen receptor (AR) is an emerging prognostic marker and therapeutic target in breast cancer. AR is expressed in 60-80% of breast cancers, with higher prevalence among estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) tumors. Androgen treatment inhibits ER signaling in ER+/AR+ breast cancer cell lines, and AR (...) expression is associated with improved survival for this subtype in epidemiologic studies. However, whether AR expression modifies the efficacy of selective ER modulators or aromatase inhibitors for ER+ cancers remains unclear.We evaluated the prognostic and predictive value of AR expression among 3021 postmenopausal ER+ breast cancer patients in the Breast International Group (BIG) trial 1-98. The BIG 1-98 study was a four-armed, double-blind, phase III randomized clinical trial that compared 5 years

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2019 Breast cancer research : BCR

5. High test positivity and low positive predictive value for colorectal cancer of continued faecal occult blood test screening after negative colonoscopy (PubMed)

High test positivity and low positive predictive value for colorectal cancer of continued faecal occult blood test screening after negative colonoscopy Objectives The English Bowel Cancer Screening Programme offers biennial guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBT) screening to 60-74-year-olds. Participants with positive results are referred for follow-up, but many do not have significant findings. If they remain age eligible, these individuals are reinvited for gFOBT screening. We evaluated (...) the performance of repeat screening in this group. Methods We analysed data on programme participants reinvited to gFOBT screening after either previous negative gFOBT ( n = 327,542), or positive gFOBT followed by a diagnostic investigation negative for colorectal cancer (CRC) or adenomas requiring surveillance ( n = 42,280). Outcomes calculated were uptake, test positivity, yield of CRC, and positive predictive value (PPV) of gFOBT for CRC. Results For participants with a previous negative gFOBT, uptake

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2017 Journal of medical screening

6. Positive predictive value and effectiveness of measles case-based surveillance in Uganda, 2012-2015. (PubMed)

Positive predictive value and effectiveness of measles case-based surveillance in Uganda, 2012-2015. Disease surveillance is a critical component in the control and elimination of vaccine preventable diseases. The Uganda National Expanded Program on Immunization strives to have a sensitive surveillance system within the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) framework. We analyzed measles surveillance data to determine the effectiveness of the measles case-based surveillance system (...) and estimate its positive predictive value in order to inform policy and practice.An IDSR alert was defined as ≥1 suspected measles case reported by a district in a week, through the electronic Health Management Information System. We defined an alert in the measles case-based surveillance system (CBS) as ≥1 suspected measles case with a blood sample collected for confirmation during the corresponding week in a particular district. Effectiveness of CBS was defined as having ≥80% of IDSR alerts with a blood

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2017 PLoS ONE

7. Improving the Positive Predictive Value of Non-Invasive Prenatal Screening (NIPS). (PubMed)

Improving the Positive Predictive Value of Non-Invasive Prenatal Screening (NIPS). We evaluated performance characteristics of a laboratory-developed, non-invasive prenatal screening (NIPS) assay for fetal aneuploidies. This assay employs massively parallel shotgun sequencing with full automation. GC sequencing bias correction and statistical smoothing were performed to enhance discrimination of affected and unaffected pregnancies. Maternal plasma samples from pregnancies with known aneuploidy (...) results from the first 10,000 clinical samples demonstrated PPVs of 98% (41/42) for trisomy 21, 92% (23/25) for trisomy 18, and 69% (9/13) for trisomy 13. Adjustment for causes of false-positive results identified during clinical testing (eg, maternal duplications) improved PPVs to 100% for trisomy 21 and 96% for trisomy 18. This NIPS test demonstrates excellent discrimination between trisomic and unaffected pregnancies. The PPVs obtained in initial clinical testing are substantially higher than

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2017 PLoS ONE

8. Positive and Negative Predictive Value of PET-CT in Skull Base Lesions: Case Series and Systematic Literature Review (PubMed)

Positive and Negative Predictive Value of PET-CT in Skull Base Lesions: Case Series and Systematic Literature Review Objectives To study positive (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of positron emission tomography with computed tomography (PET-CT) scans in determining malignancy in skull base lesions and perform a systematic literature review for optimal PET-CT interpretation. Design Retrospective case series and systematic literature review of the current English literature. Setting (...)  Tertiary referral academic medical center. Participants All patients with skull base lesions that underwent PET-CT and tissue biopsy from 2010 to 2013. Main Outcome Measures PPV and NPV of radiologist's report and standardized uptake value (SUV) cutoff of 2.5 and 3, biopsy with pathologic interpretation, clinical follow-up. Results A total of 31 PET-CT scans of 16 patients were studied; 10 PET-CT were performed upfront for diagnostic purposes and 21 were post-treatment surveillance scans. The PPV

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2016 Journal of neurological surgery reports

9. Comparative 13-year meta-analysis of the sensitivity and positive predictive value of ultrasound, CT, and MRI for detecting hepatocellular carcinoma. (PubMed)

Comparative 13-year meta-analysis of the sensitivity and positive predictive value of ultrasound, CT, and MRI for detecting hepatocellular carcinoma. To compare the per-lesion sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of ultrasonography (US), computed tomography (CT), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).The meta-analysis of sensitivity included 242 studies (15,713 patients); 116 studies (7492 patients) allowed calculation of PPV. Pooled

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2016 Abdominal radiology

10. Predicting suicidal behaviours using clinical instruments: systematic review and meta-analysis of positive predictive values for risk scales. (PubMed)

Predicting suicidal behaviours using clinical instruments: systematic review and meta-analysis of positive predictive values for risk scales. BackgroundPrediction of suicidal behaviour is an aspirational goal for clinicians and policy makers; with patients classified as 'high risk' to be preferentially allocated treatment. Clinical usefulness requires an adequate positive predictive value (PPV).AimsTo identify studies of predictive instruments and to calculate PPV estimates for suicidal (...) behaviours.MethodA systematic review identified studies of predictive instruments. A series of meta-analyses produced pooled estimates of PPV for suicidal behaviours.ResultsFor all scales combined, the pooled PPVs were: suicide 5.5% (95% CI 3.9-7.9%), self-harm 26.3% (95% CI 21.8-31.3%) and self-harm plus suicide 35.9% (95% CI 25.8-47.4%). Subanalyses on self-harm found pooled PPVs of 16.1% (95% CI 11.3-22.3%) for high-quality studies, 32.5% (95% CI 26.1-39.6%) for hospital-treated self-harm and 26.8% (95% CI

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2017 The British journal of psychiatry : the journal of mental science

11. Predictive value of positive high-sensitivity troponin T in intubated traumatic brain injury patients. (PubMed)

Predictive value of positive high-sensitivity troponin T in intubated traumatic brain injury patients. OBJECTIVEThe clinical relevance of high-sensitivity troponin T (HsTnT) in trauma patients is not well explored. In this study, the authors aimed to study the predictive value of serum HsTnT in intubated patients who had sustained traumatic brain injury (TBI).METHODSA retrospective analysis was conducted for all intubated TBI patients between 2010 and 2014 at a national level 1 trauma center (...) . Data were analyzed and compared based on the HsTnT status on admission (group 1, negative results; and group 2, positive results). Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to determine sensitivity, specificity, and cutoff level of HsTnT to predict mortality. Time to earlier discharge from hospital or death was modeled using Cox proportional hazard models to describe the relationship between HsTnT and in-hospital mortality.RESULTSOf the 826 intubated TBI patients, 490 underwent HsTnT

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2018 Journal of Neurosurgery

12. Evaluation of the predictive value of tonsil examination by bacteriological culture for detecting positive lung colonization status of nursery pigs exposed to Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae by experimental aerosol infection (PubMed)

Evaluation of the predictive value of tonsil examination by bacteriological culture for detecting positive lung colonization status of nursery pigs exposed to Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae by experimental aerosol infection Actinobacillus (A.) pleuropneumoniae is the causative agent of porcine pleuropneumonia. For control of the disease the detection of sub-clinically infected pigs is of major importance to avoid transmitting of subclinical infections. One method recommended is the testing (...) % of the pigs A. pleuropneumoniae could be isolated in lung tissue but not in tonsillar samples. In 36.4% of these animals a heavy colonization of the lungs and in 40.9% moderate to severe lung alterations were proven. Hence, the diagnostic sensitivity for the detection of a positive colonization status of the pigs by bacterial culture examination of tonsillar samples was 84.7%, the diagnostic specificity was 66.7% and the predictive values were 94.6% (positive) and 35.3% (negative). The overall sensitivity

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2018 BMC veterinary research

13. Intracerebral hemorrhage: positive predictive value of diagnosis codes in two nationwide Danish registries (PubMed)

Intracerebral hemorrhage: positive predictive value of diagnosis codes in two nationwide Danish registries The purpose of this study is to establish the validity of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) diagnoses in the Danish Stroke Registry (DSR) and the Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR).We estimated the positive predictive value (PPV) of ICH diagnoses for a sample of 500 patients from the DSR (patients recorded under ICH diagnosis) and DNPR (International Classification of Diseases, version

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2018 Clinical epidemiology

14. Positive predictive values of fecal immunochemical tests used in the STOP CRC pragmatic trial (PubMed)

Positive predictive values of fecal immunochemical tests used in the STOP CRC pragmatic trial Annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) is cost-effective for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. However, FIT positivity rates and positive predictive value (PPV) can vary substantially, with false-positive (FP) results adding to colonoscopy burden without improving cancer detection. Our objective was to describe FIT PPV and the factors associated with FP results among patients undergoing CRC (...) screening. In an ongoing pragmatic clinical trial of mailed-FIT outreach, clinics delivered one of three FIT brands (InSure, OC-Micro, and Hemosure). Patients who had a positive FIT result and a follow-up colonoscopy were included in this analysis (N = 1130). Patients' demographic and medical histories were abstracted from electronic health records (EHR). Associations with a FP result (ie, a positive FIT result with no evidence of advanced neoplasia during follow-up colonoscopy) were evaluated for FIT

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2018 Cancer medicine

15. The Predictive Value of Epstein-Barr Virus-Positivity in Patients Undergoing Gastrectomy Followed by Adjuvant Chemotherapy (PubMed)

The Predictive Value of Epstein-Barr Virus-Positivity in Patients Undergoing Gastrectomy Followed by Adjuvant Chemotherapy The present study evaluated the survival impact of standard adjuvant chemotherapy and prognostic differences between Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-associated gastric cancer (EBVaGC) and EBV-negative gastric cancer (EBVnGC). A total of 276 patients were enrolled according to the following criteria: 1) pathologically diagnosed with primary gastric adenocarcinoma, 2) test results (...) follow-up duration of 21.3 (6.4-89.0) months, the estimated 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were 74.8% and 83.0%, respectively. In univariate analysis and multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional hazard model including age, gender, stage, Lauren classification, and the type of chemotherapy, EBV-positivity was not significantly associated with DFS (p-value= 0.630) regardless of the type of chemotherapy. Therefore, no association was found between EBV positivity

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2018 Chonnam medical journal

16. Positive predictive value and misclassification of diagnosis of pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in Swedish patient registries (PubMed)

Positive predictive value and misclassification of diagnosis of pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in Swedish patient registries To validate diagnoses of pulmonary embolism (PE) and deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in administrative registries. We also estimated the frequency of misclassified PE and DVT events.A registry search for ICD codes representing PE and DVT was performed between 1985 and 2014 in a large population-based cohort in northern Sweden. An additional search using (...) an extended set of ICD codes was performed to identify misclassified events. Diagnoses were validated manually by reviewing medical records and radiology reports.Searching ICD codes in the National Patient Registry and Cause of Death Registry identified 2,450 participants with a first-time diagnosis of PE or DVT. The positive predictive value (PPV) for a diagnosis of PE or DVT was 80.7% and 59.2%, respectively. For the period of 2009 to 2014, the PPV was higher for PE (85.8%) but lower for DVT (54.1

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2018 Clinical epidemiology

17. Higher Predictive Value Positive for MMA Than ACA MTM Eligibility Criteria Among Racial and Ethnic Minorities: An Observational Study (PubMed)

Higher Predictive Value Positive for MMA Than ACA MTM Eligibility Criteria Among Racial and Ethnic Minorities: An Observational Study The objective of this study was to examine positive predictive value (PPV) of medication therapy management (MTM) eligibility criteria under Medicare Modernization Act (MMA) and Affordable Care Act (ACA) in identifying patients with medication utilization issues across racial and ethnic groups. The study analyzed Medicare data (2012-2013) for 2 213 594

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2018 Inquiry: A Journal of Medical Care Organization, Provision and Financing

18. Positive predictive value of ICD-10 diagnosis codes for brain abscess in the Danish National Patient Registry (PubMed)

Positive predictive value of ICD-10 diagnosis codes for brain abscess in the Danish National Patient Registry To evaluate the positive predictive value (PPV) of ICD-10 diagnosis codes for brain abscess in the Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR).We examined medical records of all patients with a first-time diagnosis code of brain abscess in the DNPR from 2007 to 2016. Patients were categorized with either confirmed or disproved brain abscess using a priori defined criteria. We computed

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2018 Clinical epidemiology

19. Sensitivity and positive predictive value of the registration of self-expanding metal stent treatment for obstructive colorectal cancer in two Danish nationwide registries (PubMed)

Sensitivity and positive predictive value of the registration of self-expanding metal stent treatment for obstructive colorectal cancer in two Danish nationwide registries Randomized controlled trials have not provided clear evidence for the use of self-expanding metal stents (SEMS) for colonic cancer obstruction. Existing observational research mainly originates from highly specialized single-center settings with limited generalizability. The conduct of population-based nationwide studies (...) for the evaluation of DNPR data. In the DNPR, only two patients were incorrectly registered (positive predictive value [PPV]=98%, 95% CI: 92%-100%) whereas six patients were not captured by the DNPR (sensitivity =94%, 95% CI: 87%-98%). For the evaluation of the DCCG database, the reference standard included 54 patients. Only two patients in the DCCG database were incorrectly recorded (PPV =95%, 95% CI: 82%-99%), whereas 19 patients were not captured by the DCCG database (sensitivity =65%, 95% CI: 51%-77%).We

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2018 Clinical epidemiology

20. Positive predictive value of ICD-10 codes for acute myocardial infarction in Japan: a validation study at a single center (PubMed)

Positive predictive value of ICD-10 codes for acute myocardial infarction in Japan: a validation study at a single center In Japan, several large healthcare databases have become available for research since the early 2000's. However, validation studies to examine the accuracy of these databases remain scarce. We conducted a validation study in order to estimate the positive predictive value (PPV) of local or ICD-10 codes for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Japanese claims. In particular

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2018 BMC health services research

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