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Improbable Research

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1. Improbable, but plausible, research study: a randomised controlled trial of premature cord clamping vs. neonatal venesection to achieve routine prophylactic neonatal red cell reduction. (PubMed)

Improbable, but plausible, research study: a randomised controlled trial of premature cord clamping vs. neonatal venesection to achieve routine prophylactic neonatal red cell reduction. 29985087 2018 08 13 1758-1095 111 8 2018 Aug Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine J R Soc Med Improbable, but plausible, research study: a randomised controlled trial of premature cord clamping vs. neonatal venesection to achieve routine prophylactic neonatal red cell reduction. 270-275 10.1177 (...) /0141076818781406 Weeks Andrew A 1 Sanyu Research Unit, Department of Women's and Children's Health, Liverpool Women's Hospital, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L8 7SS, UK. Bewley Susan S https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8064-652X 2 Department of Women and Children's Health, Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, Kings College London, St Thomas' Hospital, London SE1 7EH, UK. eng Journal Article 2018 07 09 England J R Soc Med 7802879 0141-0768 2018 7 10 6 0 2018 7 10 6 0 2018 7 10 6 0 ppublish 29985087 10.1177

2018 Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine

2. Improbable Research

Improbable Research Improbable Research Toggle navigation Brain Head & Neck Chest Endocrine Abdomen Musculoskeletal Skin Infectious Disease Hematology & Oncology Cohorts Diagnostics Emergency Findings Procedures Prevention & Management Pharmacy Resuscitation Trauma Emergency Procedures Ultrasound Cardiovascular Emergencies Lung Emergencies Infectious Disease Pediatrics Neurologic Emergencies Skin Exposure Miscellaneous Abuse Cancer Administration 4 Improbable Research Improbable Research Aka (...) : Improbable Research , Dubious Articles II. References: Improbable Articles Parachute use to prevent death and major related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials III. Resources Improbable Research Ig Nobel Awards The Alarming History of Medicine: Amusing Anecdotes from Hippocrates to s (Richard Gordon) Images: Related links to external sites (from Bing) These images are a random sampling from a Bing search on the term "Improbable Research." Click on the image

2018 FP Notebook

3. Book Review: 'The Improbable War: China, the United States, and the Logic of Great Power Conflict'

Book Review: 'The Improbable War: China, the United States, and the Logic of Great Power Conflict' Book Review: 'The Improbable War: China, the United States, and the Logic of Great Power Conflict' | RAND Objective Analysis. Effective Solutions. Site-wide navigation Trending Topics Featured Research Activities Spotlight Commentary: Commentary: By Research Area Drawing upon decades of experience, RAND provides research services, systematic analysis, and innovative thinking to a global clientele (...) that includes government agencies, foundations, and private-sector firms. Who We Work For Work with Us About RAND Research The Pardee RAND Graduate School ( ) is the largest public policy Ph.D. program in the nation and the only program based at an independent public policy research organization—the RAND Corporation. Overview: Pardee RAND Graduate School Student Spotlight Assistant Policy Researcher; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Assistant Policy Researcher; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School Site

2016 The RAND blog

4. Detection and interpretation of impossible and improbable Coma Recovery Scale-Revised scores (PubMed)

Detection and interpretation of impossible and improbable Coma Recovery Scale-Revised scores To determine the frequency with which specific Coma Recovery Scale-Revised (CRS-R) subscale scores co-occur as a means of providing clinicians and researchers with an empirical method of assessing CRS-R data quality.We retrospectively analyzed CRS-R subscale scores in hospital inpatients diagnosed with disorders of consciousness (DOCs) to identify impossible and improbable subscore combinations (...) and researchers should take steps to ensure the accuracy of CRS-R scores. To minimize the risk of diagnostic error and erroneous research findings, we have identified 9 impossible and 36 improbable CRS-R subscore combinations. The presence of any one of these subscore combinations should trigger additional data quality review.Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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2016 Archives of physical medicine and rehabilitation

5. Improbable Research

Improbable Research Improbable Research Toggle navigation Brain Head & Neck Chest Endocrine Abdomen Musculoskeletal Skin Infectious Disease Hematology & Oncology Cohorts Diagnostics Emergency Findings Procedures Prevention & Management Pharmacy Resuscitation Trauma Emergency Procedures Ultrasound Cardiovascular Emergencies Lung Emergencies Infectious Disease Pediatrics Neurologic Emergencies Skin Exposure Miscellaneous Abuse Cancer Administration 4 Improbable Research Improbable Research Aka (...) : Improbable Research , Dubious Articles II. References: Improbable Articles Parachute use to prevent death and major related to gravitational challenge: systematic review of randomised controlled trials III. Resources Improbable Research Ig Nobel Awards The Alarming History of Medicine: Amusing Anecdotes from Hippocrates to s (Richard Gordon) Images: Related links to external sites (from Bing) These images are a random sampling from a Bing search on the term "Improbable Research." Click on the image

2015 FP Notebook

6. The Cultivation of the Improbable; Being Random Thoughts on Medical Research (PubMed)

The Cultivation of the Improbable; Being Random Thoughts on Medical Research 13199467 2003 05 01 2018 12 01 0025-7338 42 4 1954 Oct Bulletin of the Medical Library Association Bull Med Libr Assoc The cultivation of the improbable; being random thoughts on medical research. 405-11 CANNAN R K RK eng Journal Article United States Bull Med Libr Assoc 0421037 0025-7338 OM Biomedical Research Humans Research Thinking 5527:11112:399 RESEARCH 1954 10 1 1954 10 1 0 1 1954 10 1 0 0 ppublish 13199467

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1954 Bulletin of the Medical Library Association

7. Invited Commentary: Identifying the Improbable, the Value of Incremental Insights. (PubMed)

create the appearance of a direct effect of birth weight on current blood pressure. Their results suggest that the conditions required to induce such a bias are improbable, given their assumptions. This insight moves the debate forward, and the next step is to evaluate their assumptions with similar quantitative rigor. It is also useful at this stage to reflect on the origins of the research question and the substantive implications of the debate. In particular, is birth weight actually a causal (...) Invited Commentary: Identifying the Improbable, the Value of Incremental Insights. There has been a long-standing debate about whether birth weight directly affects adult blood pressure, or whether the association is entirely mediated through current weight. In this issue of the Journal, Chiolero et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2014;179(1):4-11) quantitatively evaluate whether bias from an unmeasured confounder of the relationship between current weight and current blood pressure could artificially

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2013 American Journal of Epidemiology

8. What to do about research assessment (the REF)? A proposal for two-stage university education

What to do about research assessment (the REF)? A proposal for two-stage university education What to do about research assessment (the REF)? A proposal for two-stage university education – DC's Improbable Science Search this blog Meta Corrected and searchable version of of Lectures on Biostatistics (THES, 1973). Latest Tweets "An anti-EU movement can’t also be anti-US, not without looking as if it hates everyone" by Boris: "less a lovable maverick than a rather unpleasant oddball." by RT : My (...) a case for reverse causality, that's it Categories Categories Archives Archives » DOI: 10.15200/winn.142809.94999 The Research Excellence Framework (REF) is the latest in a series of 6-yearly attempts to assess the quality of research in UK universities. It’s used to decide how to allocate about £1.6 billion per year of taxpayers’ money, the so-called "quality-related" (QR) allocation. It could have been done a lot worse. One of the best ideas was that only four papers could be submitted, whatever

2015 DC's Improbable Science blog

9. Should metrics be used to assess research performance? A submission to HEFCE

Should metrics be used to assess research performance? A submission to HEFCE Should metrics be used to assess research performance? A submission to HEFCE – DC's Improbable Science Search this blog Meta Corrected and searchable version of of Lectures on Biostatistics (THES, 1973). Latest Tweets "An anti-EU movement can’t also be anti-US, not without looking as if it hates everyone" by Boris: "less a lovable maverick than a rather unpleasant oddball." by RT : My cartoon - is our safe in hands (...) , that's it Categories Categories Archives Archives » The Higher Education Funding Council England (HEFCE) gives money to universities. The allocation that a university gets depends strongly on the periodical assessments of the quality of their research. Enormous amounts if time, energy and money go into preparing submissions for these assessments, and the assessment procedure distorts the behaviour of universities in ways that are undesirable. In the last assessment, four papers were submitted by each

2014 DC's Improbable Science blog

10. ON THE PRESENCE OF CHOLIN AND NEURIN IN THE INTESTINAL CANAL DURING ITS COMPLETE OBSTRUCTION : A RESEARCH ON AUTOINTOXICATION. (PubMed)

ON THE PRESENCE OF CHOLIN AND NEURIN IN THE INTESTINAL CANAL DURING ITS COMPLETE OBSTRUCTION : A RESEARCH ON AUTOINTOXICATION. My experiments lead me to believe that complete occlusion of the small intestine at its lower end will give rise to the occurrence of cholin, neurin and perhaps other bases, provided the food taken contains any considerable quantity of lecithin. It is not improbable that still other poisons are formed by bacterial action from other constituents of the food in cases

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1899 The Journal of experimental medicine

11. School-based interventions for reducing disciplinary school exclusion

in the widest sense. It funds research and innovation in education and social policy and also works to build capacity in education, science and social science research. The Nuffield Foundation has funded this project, but the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Foundation. More information is available at www.nuffieldfoundation.org ii The Campbell Collaboration | www.campbellcollaboration.org Declarations of interest None of the researchers involved in the team present (...) and applicability of evidence 88 Quality of the evidence 90 Limitations and potential biases in the review process 91 Agreements and disagreements with other studies or reviews 91 6. AUTHORS’ CONCLUSIONS 93 Implications for practice and policy 93 Implications for research 94 7. REFERENCES 98 References to included studies 98 References to excluded studies 100 References to studies awaiting classification 130 References to ongoing studies 130 Additional references 131 8. INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REVIEW 138 Review

2018 Campbell Collaboration

12. An Official ATS Statement: Impact of Mild Obstructive Sleep Apnea in Adults

Committee on Mild Obstructive Sleep Apnea THIS OFFICIAL RESEARCH STATEMENT OF THE AMERICAN THORACIC SOCIETY (ATS) WAS APPROVED BY THE ATS BOARD of DIRECTORS,FEBRUARY 2016 Background:Mildobstructivesleepapnea(OSA)isahighlyprevalent disorderinadults;however,whethermildOSAhassigni?cant neurocognitiveandcardiovascularcomplicationsisuncertain. Objectives:Thespeci?cgoalsofthisResearchStatementareto appraisetheevidenceregardingwhetherlong-termadverse neurocognitiveandcardiovascularoutcomesareattributabletomild (...) Events, Arrhythmias, and Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality? Limitations Knowledge Gaps Neurocognitive Outcomes Cardiovascular Outcomes Other Research Recommendations Conclusions An Executive Summary of this document is available at http://www.atsjournals.org/doi/suppl/10.1164/rccm.201602-0361ST ORCID IDs: 0000-0002-5927-1169 (S.C.); 0000-0002-9474-7679 (S.F.Q.); 0000-0002-8704-9506 (F.A.); 0000-0002-9014-1397 (N.M.); 0000-0002-9142- 5172 (S.R.P.); 0000-0002-4404-3833 (S.L.K.). This article has

2016 American Thoracic Society

13. Global suicide mortality: Using data to inform action and monitor progress

attention on the prevention of suicide, we decided that it was an opportune time to use . [5] The Global Burden of Disease Study enhances existing data on suicide through data processing that enhances international comparability and partially addresses misclassification by reassignment of ICD codes from ill-defined or improbable cause of death. [6] In the absence of suicide mortality data for a jurisdiction, the GBD Study estimation process borrows strength across geography and time to calculate (...) estimates of suicide mortality. Suicide prevention research and strategies must be informed by patterns of suicide mortality. For example, differences in the female to male suicide mortality ratio by socio-demographic index (SDI) are striking, with lower SDI countries generally demonstrating higher female to male mortality ratios. This finding calls for further research to understand what is driving relatively higher suicide rates among women in lower SDI countries, or relatively lower suicide rates

2019 The BMJ Blog

14. Migalastat for treating Fabry disease

Evidence review group review 12 5 Consideration of the evidence 15 Nature of the condition 15 Impact of the new technology 16 Cost to the NHS and Personal Social Services 19 Value for money 19 Impact of the technology beyond direct health benefits and on the delivery of the specialised service 22 Conclusion 22 Summary of evaluation committee's key conclusions 23 6 Implementation 29 7 Recommendations for further research 30 8 Evaluation committee members and NICE project team 31 Evaluation committee (...) is commercial in confidence and so cannot be reported here. Estimates for costs associated with each health state were provided, including diagnostic, laboratory and imaging tests, primary and secondary care appointments, hospitalisations and treating complications. The costs were derived from NHS reference costs and Personal Social Services Research Unit (PSSRU) data. The frequency of diagnostic, laboratory and imaging tests for all people with Fabry disease was taken from the adult Fabry disease standard

2017 National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence - Highly specialised technology

15. How “they” view “us”: Colton Berrett edition

Pauling because of Vitamin C ? “Mistakes are the portals of discovery” – James Joyce Panacea MJD: dropping your morning cup of coffee is a mistake. Saying Good Morning at 1pm when you work nights is a mistake. Forgetting to put a stamp on the envelope containing your credit card payment is a mistake. Researching a promising idea is not a mistake. Continuing to advocate a once promising idea that is not supported by the evidence is not a mistake. Refusing to concede the idea just didn’t pan out (...) is not a mistake. Michael J. Dochniak (MJD) Panacea writes, Researching a promising idea is not a mistake. MJD says, Orac has taught MJD that proving a negative is medically unethical, therefore, I’ve used common-sense teachings to induce exclusionary measures that may affect the disease/disorder incidence thereafter. In simplicity, stop what you’re doing and see what happens. I like Orac, although, once a decade. Panacea MJD: If that’s what you think Orac taught you, then you didn’t understand him

2018 Respectful Insolence

16. 5-Star Friday: Clarity

of “uh-oh” moment both from reading that title and then some more as I got deeper into the piece. He went on to list detailed concerns about what he called the Times’ uncritical coverage. Here are his headings – : First, some things about the technology struck me as ranging from puzzling to improbable. Second, this research is very preliminary. Finally, some aspects of the NYT piece itself are concerning and it feels unbalanced overall. I think there should have been more healthy skepticism (...) in the piece in general. He concludes, sounding like a member of our editorial team: It can be a challenge to find the right balance between reporting on cool new research to appropriately convey the associated excitement and at the same time to keep asking the needed probing questions, but the bottom line is that there are concrete risks from science coverage that doesn’t take a sufficiently critical eye to sexy, new biomedical research. How many times have we seen that in the stem cell field? Whether

2018 HealthNewsReview

17. Richard Lehman’s journal review—5 February 2018

Richard Lehman’s journal review—5 February 2018 Richard Lehman's journal review—5 February 2018 - The BMJ ---> Richard Lehman reviews the latest research in the top medical journals NEJM 1 Feb 2018 Vol 378 Kids’ kidneys and long term trouble One of the largest in the world is provided by the Israeli Army. Health reviews before compulsory military service provided medical data on more than 1.5 million conscripts from 1967-97, and these were then compared with a national registry of end-stage (...) to modify it. For example, I am male. I have male pattern baldness. I also get migraines. I would not expect my cardiovascular risk to go down by having a sex change, a hair implant, or a treatment that reduces my migraines. But wait: I may be wrong. which asks “Could people with migraine experience a similar reduction in cardiovascular risk if the frequency or severity of migraine is reduced? We simply do not know.” Nor indeed do I care. I shall be dead before anyone has tested this improbable

2018 The BMJ Blog

18. Are interventions in reproductive medicine assessed for plausible and clinically relevant effects? A systematic review of power and precision in trials and meta-analyses. (PubMed)

and only 2% of meta-analyses achieved 80% power to detect an improvement of 5 pp. Median power was high (85% for trials and 93% for meta-analyses) only in relation to 20 pp absolute LBR improvement, although substantial numbers of trials and meta-analyses did not achieve 80% power even for this improbably large effect size. Median width of 95% CIs was 25 pp and 21 pp for RCTs and meta-analyses, respectively. We found that 28% of Cochrane Reviews with LBR as the primary outcome contain no live birth (...) are consistent with the practice of evidence-based medicine or the idea of informed patient choice. However, RCTs and meta-analyses remain vital to establish the effectiveness of fertility interventions. We discuss strategies to improve the evidence base and call for collaborative studies focusing on the most important research questions.There was no specific funding for this study. KS and SL declare no conflict of interest. AV consults for the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA): all fees

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2019 Human Reproduction

19. Keeping the art of medical satire alive

. The “Parachute,” published in BMJ’s Christmas edition, will go down in history with Jonathan Swift’s and Frederic Bastiat’s as timeless satire in which pedagogy punched above, indeed depended on, their absurdity. In the “Parachute,” researchers concluded, deadpan, that since no RCT has tested the efficacy of parachutes when jumping off a plane, there is insufficient evidence to recommend them. At first glance, the joke was on RCTs and those who have an unmoored zeal for them. But that’d be a satirical (...) in some quarters. Though it may just be me and, admittedly, I find making Germans laugh easier than Americans, I was surprised by the provenance of the researchers, who hailed from Boston, better known for serious quantitative social engineers than stand-up quantitative comedians. Satire is best when it mocks your biases. The quantitative sciences have become parody even, or particularly when they don’t intend satire. An endlessly cited concluded that medical errors are the third leading cause

2019 KevinMD blog

20. The Prosecutor’s Fallacy

answers the right question, by focusing on how the evidence applies to the ‘defendant’ and not on the ‘evidence’ alone in the absence of other relevant factors. The Prosecutor’s Fallacy is most often associated with miscarriages of justice. It’s when the probability of innocence given the evidence is wrongly assumed to equal an infinitesimally small probability that that evidence would occur if the defendant was innocent. Consequently, highly improbable innocent explanations have led to the assumption (...) attorney’s fallacy. Law and Human Behaviour 1987; 11:167-187 Hubert L, Wainer H. A statistical guide for the ethically perplexed. CRP Press, Taylor & Francis Group. 2013. Mlodinow L. The drunkard’s walk: how randomness rules our lives. Allen Lane. 2008 Tversky, A.; Kahneman, D. (1974). “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases”. Science . 185 (4157): 1124–1131. Altman D. Practical statistics for medical research. Chapman & Hall. 1993 Kathy receives funding from the NHS National Institute

2018 CEBM blog

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